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    Håvard Hegre: Bibliography

    173 publications

    Håvard Hegre (2026)
    How artificial intelligence can support peace

    PRIO Paper
    Paola Vesco et al. (2026)
    The underreported death toll of wars: a probabilistic reassessment from a survey with UCDP coders

    Journal article in Journal of Conflict Resolution
    Paola Vesco, Elisabeth Gilmore & Halvard Buhaug (2026)
    The impacts of armed conflict on climate action (SDG 13): a review of the literature

    Book chapter in The Elgar Companion to Peace and the Sustainable Development Goals
    Paola Vesco et al. (2025)
    The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature

    Journal article in World Development
    Håvard Hegre et al. (2025)
    The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty

    Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
    David Randahl et al. (2025)
    Forecasting electoral violence

    Journal article in International Journal of Forecasting
    Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Tim Gåsste & Håvard Hegre (2024)
    A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems

    Journal article in International Journal of Forecasting
    Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Håvard Hegre & Maxine Ria Leis (2023)
    Predicting armed conflict using protest data

    Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
    Kristina Petrova et al. (2023)
    The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways

    Journal article in Environmental Research Letters
    Håvard Hegre (2022)
    Christopher Blattman (2021) Why We Fight

    Book review in JPR Book notes
    Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi & Håvard Hegre (2022)
    The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted

    Popular article in PRIO Blogs
    Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco & Michael Colaresi (2022)
    Lessons from an escalation prediction competition

    Journal article in International Interactions
    Paola Vesco et al. (2022)
    United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition

    Journal article in International Interactions
    Håvard Hegre (2022)
    Early-warning Systems for Political Violence: How Should We Define our Prediction Targets?

    Book chapter in Taking Stock of Early Warning for Atrocity Prevention. Report from the 2021 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention
    Sophie von Loeben et al. (2022)
    Moving from Reaction to Action: Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel
    Håvard Hegre et al. (2022)
    Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025
    Håvard Hegre et al. (2022)
    Forecasting Fatalities
    Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Peder Landsverk (2021)
    Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality

    Journal article in International Studies Quarterly
    Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Hegre & Peder Landsverk (2021)
    Kan vi forutse krig? Studier gir grunn til optimisme

    Popular article in Aftenposten
    Håvard Strand & Håvard Hegre (2021)
    Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2020

    Conflict Trends
    Håvard Hegre et al. (2021)
    ViEWS 2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System

    Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
    Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2020)
    Norge bør fronte fredsbevarende operasjoner

    Popular article in Dagens Næringsliv
    Håvard Hegre, Kristina Petrova & Nina von Uexkull (2020)
    Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals

    Journal article in Sustainability
    Håvard Strand et al. (2020)
    Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2019

    Conflict Trends
    Håvard Hegre et al. (2020)
    Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset

    Journal article in Research and Politics
    Håvard Hegre, Michael Bernhard & Jan Teorell (2020)
    Civil Society and the Democratic Peace

    Journal article in Journal of Conflict Resolution
    Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2019)
    Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations

    Journal article in The Journal of Politics
    Håvard Hegre et al. (2019)
    ViEWS: A political Violence Early-Warning System

    Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
    Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Hegre & Lisa Hultman (2019)
    U.N. peacekeeping really can be effective. Here’s how we tabulated this

    Popular article in Washington Post
    Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Hegre (2019)
    The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis

    Journal article in Public Choice

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