Russia's war against Ukraine; Russian military reform; Russia's conflict management in the Caucasus and Central Asia; energy interests in Russia's foreign and security policy; Russia's relations with Europe and NATO; the evolution of Russia-China partnership.
Pavel K. Baev
Research Professor
Email: pavel@prio.org
Mobile phone: +47 90 65 71 63
Interests and experience
I publish a blog on Arctic Politics and Russia's Ambitions on Facebook.
Languages spoken:
Russian; English
Working experience:
After graduating from the MGU in September 1979, I found myself 'behind bars', working as a researcher, and then senior researcher, in a 'post-box': a Research Institute of the USSR Ministry of Defence.It was only in August 1988 that I left it to join a newly-created Institute of Europe in USSR Academy of Sciences, where I worked as a head of section for military-political studies until October 1992.That month I became a PRIOite. Since then, besides holding the position of senior researcher, I was from July 1995 to December 2001, the Editor of Security Dialogue, PRIO's policy-oriented quarterly journal. In 2000-2004, I was the leader of PRIO Foreign and Security Policies program; in 2002-2005, I was the head of a working group at the Center for the Study of Civil War (CSCW); in 1999-2005, I was a member of PRIO Board. In August 2005, I applied for being evaluated for professorial competence (Forsker 1), and in March 2006, the committee of peers produced a positive conclusion, making me a Research Professor. In May 2011, Strobe Talbott invited me to become a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Brookings Institutions, a privilege I value greatly. Since July 2013, I am also a Senior Associate Fellow at the Institut Francais des Relations Internationales (IFRI), affiliated with the Russia/NIS Centre.
Education:
It was my luck that got me from a 'regular' Moscow school (no. 648) to the Geographical Department of the Moscow State University (MGU) in September 1974. In June 1979, I graduated with MA in Political Geography (that 'B' in the last exam in 'Scientific Communism' meant no cum laude or 'red diploma'). In September 1983, I was accepted into a doctoral track in the Institute of USA and Canada, USSR Academy of Sciences - and in May 1988, I received my PhD in International Relations.
Projects
All of Pavel K. Baev projects
CENTREPEACE – Central And Eastern European Security Cooperation Cluster
Reconfiguring Deterrence as NATO Strategy for Defeating Russia
Mediation in Regionalized Intra-State Conflict
Russian Approaches to Peace Processes (RAPP)
Arms Control In Bello
The Impact of the China-Russia Partnership on Shifting Security Interactions in East Asia and the Pacific
Consequences of the Invasion of Ukraine for the Global South
Transactional Alliances
Yemen in Context: New Insights into the Humanitarian-Security-Development Nexus in the broader Middle East
PRIO Stories
Latest publications
All of Pavel K. Baev publications
Russian diesel deals and energy ceasefire expose Moscow's limits
Popular article in Eurasia Daily Monitor
Putin's early October diplomacy fails to deliver
Popular article in Eurasia Daily Monitor
Putin's 'special electoral operation' could backfire
Popular article in Eurasia Daily Monitor
Russia remains absorbed with Europe amid BRICS summit
Popular article in Eurasia Daily Monitor
Putin's Eastern voyages highlight Russia's setbacks
Popular article in Eurasia Daily Monitor
Is Europe up to Putin's challenge - and vice versa?
Popular article in Global Panorama
Blitzkrieg and the Russian Art of War
Book review in JPR Book Notes
The Chauvinist Threat: Russia's War and the West's Response
Book review in JPR Book Notes
The Russia-Ukraine War - Security Lessons
Book review in JPR Book Notes
The Ukraine War takes new turns in the Black Sea theatre
Popular article in Global Panorama
Latest news
All of Pavel K. Baev news
PRIO’s first European Security Week
PRIO’s first European Security Week brought together researchers and experts for a series of debates on the future of European security.
Roundtable on Chinese perspectives on global developments
On 4 March, PRIO hosted a roundtable on Chinese perspectives on global issues during the official visit of a Chinese delegation led by Vice Minister LU Kang (IDCPC). Scholars in Oslo joined to discuss China-Norway relations, geopolitics, and multilateralism.
Nordic Security: Norway and Sweden – Differences and Similarities
Stefan Löfven, former Prime Minister of Sweden, and Knut Storberget, former Norwegian Minister of Justice, gave the key introductions at the PRIO-hosted event on Nordic security.
PRIO at Arendalsuka 2023
Arendalsuka is an annual Norwegian political festival that brings together politicians, journalists, policy makers, aid organisations, civil society and the private sector.
PRIO Awarded New Funding to Research Russian Approaches to Peace Processes
PRIO was awarded new funding this week by the Research Council of Norway for a 3-year project, Russian Approaches to Peace Processes.
PRIO Contributions to Arendalsuka 2022
Arendalsuka concluded on Friday and PRIO Director Henrik Urdal sums up PRIO's contributions.
PRIO at Arendalsuka 2022
PRIO participated at this year's Arendalsuka with three events, and with our researchers on several debate panels.
The History of PRIO and Peace Research: New Open Access Book
The new open accessbook Livesin Peace Research: The Oslo Stories explains how PRIO, the world'soldest independent peace research institute, was founded and how it survivedthrough crises.
Ukraine: PRIO Expertise
The most relevant PRIO researchers to comment on aspects relevant to the Russia-Ukraine War are listed here.
Moscow Pulled Between Afghanistan and Syria
In an article for UIK Panorama, Research Professor Pavel Baev writes about the inherent weaknesses in Russia's capacity to pursue an ambitious foreign policy, which are getting exposed in the wake Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan.
Latest events
All of Pavel K. Baev events
International security and the contribution of critical approaches to security and technology
The internal drivers of Russian policy toward Europe
The struggle for influence between Russia and the EU
Unpacking Russian Disinformation and Propaganda on Ukraine
Conference Reconfiguring Deterrence as NATO Strategy
Managing Europe's Long-Term Relations with Russia
Can Diplomacy Bring an End to the War in Ukraine?
Is There an End to the War in Ukraine?
Nordisk sikkerhet: Norge og Sverige – forskjeller og likheter
One Year after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Geopolitical Impacts for Europe, the Middle East and Sahel
Latest comments
All of Pavel K. Baev comments
Putin’s early October diplomacy fails to deliver
Putin’s ‘Special Electoral Operation’ could backfire
Russia remains absorbed with Europe amid BRICS summit
Putin’s Eastern voyage highlights Russia’s setbacks
Is Europe up to Putin’s challenge – and vice versa?
Only Moscow lacks new ideas for ending war against Ukraine
The Ukraine War takes new turns in the Black Sea theatre
Ukraine ramps up drone strikes in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea
Putin intensifies missile attacks against Kyiv ahead of NATO summit
Ukraine’s expanding strike campaign undercuts Putin’s claims of steady progress
International security and the contribution of critical approaches to security and technology
The internal drivers of Russian policy toward Europe
The struggle for influence between Russia and the EU
Unpacking Russian Disinformation and Propaganda on Ukraine
Conference Reconfiguring Deterrence as NATO Strategy
Managing Europe's Long-Term Relations with Russia
How Russians (Really) Feel about Putin and Ukraine
Is There an End to the War in Ukraine?
A Challenging Counteroffensive in Ukraine
Nordisk sikkerhet: Norge og Sverige – forskjeller og likheter
One Year after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Geopolitical Impacts for Europe, the Middle East and Sahel
In the media
PRIO researcher Pavel K. Baev was interviewed by Forsvarets forum on how the willingness to sacrifice soldiers in the cold gives the Russians a tactical advantage in Ukraine.
PRIO Researcher Pavel K. Baev was mentioned in a Forsvarets Forum article about how the willingness to sacrifice soldiers in the cold gives the Russians a tactical advantage in Ukraine.
PRIO researcher Pavel Baev was interviewed by The Guardian newspaper in an article on the UK’s relationship with Russia and the US.
PRIO researcher Pavel Baev was quoted in an article on the site Perguntaram, on when a world war might break out, based on an earlier interview he did with Al Jazeera.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev was interviewed about the impact on Ukrainians if they are occupied by Russia, by NRK.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev was interviewed by the Financial Times on the Ukrainian incursion into the Russian city of Kursk.
PRIO researcher Pavel Baev was interviewed by the Financial Times about the recent terrorist attack in Moscow.
PRIO researcher Pavel Baev wrote two opinion pieces in Eurasia Daily Monitor, one titled ‘Russia’s Vision for Dominance in the Middle East Suffers Under Conflict’ and ‘Russian Siren Song of Peace and Baltic Warnings of War.’
PRIO researcher Pavel Baev penned an opinion piece in the Ukrainian outlet, New Voice. He also wrote two opinion pieces in Eurasia Daily Monitor, one titled ‘Russia held hostage to Putin’s crime of aggression’ and the other titled ‘Balance of war in Ukraine set to shift not in Russia’s favour.’ Pavel was also interviewed by The Epoch Times on the war in Ukraine.
PRIO researcher Pavel Baev wrote an opinion piece in Eurasia Daily Monitor titled ‘Russian Energy Industry Faces Looming Investment Crisis.’
PRIO researcher Pavel Baev wrote an opinion piece in Eurasia Daily Monitor titled 'Russian Influence Diminished in Remaking the Middle East'.
Researcher Pavel Baev wrote two opinion pieces in Eurasia Daily Monitor. One was titled, ‘Russian Nuclear Blackmail Remains Ineffective’ and the other was titled ‘Russia Tries and Fails to Gain a Foothold in Asia-Pacific.’
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev was interviewed about the impact of new conflict in the Middle East on the war in Ukraine, in an article by the Spanish newspaper, La Vanguardia.
Pavel also wrote two opinion pieces for Eurasia Daily Monitor titled ‘Moscow Seeks to Benefit from Fighting in Gaza’ and ‘Putin Uses Valdai Club to Repeat Nuclear Bluff.’
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev wrote an opinion piece in Eurasia Daily Monitor titled, ‘Putin and Xi Meet as Hidden Differences Mount’.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev wrote two opinion pieces in Eurasia Daily Monitor titled, Zelenskyy Fights Difficult Diplomatic Battles, as Russia’s Isolation Deepens and Winter in the Long War is Coming for Russia.
PRIO Researchers Kristin Bakke and Pavel Baev inputted into an article written by PRIO on the recent Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, for the Norwegian research industry publication, Forskning.no.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev wrote an opinion piece in Eurasia Daily Monitor titled, Russia’s Diminished Global Status Exposed in India, and another titled Putin and Kim Meet at Russian Cosmodrome.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev wrote two opinion pieces in Eurasia Daily Monitor. One was titled Hollow Words and Apparent Setbacks at the Russia-Africa Summit and the other was titled Ukraine’s ‘Counteroffensive’ in the Global South.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev wrote an opinion piece in Eurasia Daily Monitor titled Hard Georgian Lessons for Ending the War in Ukraine. He also did several media interviews in response to the death of the Wagner boss, Prigozhin.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev was interviewed about a Norwegian shipping company transporting cooking oil out of Russia, in an interview with the Norwegian broadcaster NRK.
Pavel also wrote an opinion piece in Eurasia Daily Monitor titled, ‘Russia Remains Stubborn on Non-Renewal of Ukraine Grain Deal.’
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev wrote several opinion pieces over the summer that were published by Eurasia Daily Monitor titled Russia Stays on the Course of Economic Delusion and Military Attrition, Mutiny Undercuts Russian Intrigues in the Global South, Failures of Putin Regime Distort Russian Political Perspectives, A Vilnius Boost for the Ukrainian Offensive, Russia Reels From New Post-Vilnius Challenges and Russia Escalates War by Breaking Ukraine Grain Deal.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev wrote two opinion pieces in Eurasia Daily Monitor. One was titled Summit in Hiroshima Charts Ending for War in Ukraine and the other was titled Three Russian Discourses and Significant Silence on the War in Ukraine.
Pavel was mentioned in an article on Chinese attitudes to reunification with Taiwan, in a comparison saying that only Russians who are tired of war can end the conflict in Ukraine, in the Asian outlet, Up Media.
He was also interviewed by the Swedish newspaper, Dagens Nyheter, on the warring parties’ military strategies.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev wrote two opinion pieces in Eurasia Daily Monitor. One was titled Ukraine Takes the War Deep into Russia, and the other was titled The Counteroffensive, the Dam and the Proliferation of Peace Plans.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev spoke about the role of the G7 in the war in Ukraine, in an article published by Nuevo Periodico. The original article was published by the The Brookings Institution.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev was interviewed about Russian spying in Norway, in an article for the Norwegian broadcaster, NRK.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev was interviewed on the strength of the Ukrainian military for the US magazine, Newsweek. Pavel was also interviewed about how and why an elite brigade of Russia’s military took huge losses in Ukraine, by the US news site Insider. He was interviewed about the importance of missiles to Russia’s President Putin, which was featured in India’s The Eastern Herald.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev was interviewed about a potential new Russian private military company being formed, in the news outlet The State.
PRIO Researcher Pavel Baev wrote an article about the latest military support for the war in Ukraine in Euroasia Daily Monitor. Pavel was interviewed by Norway’s TV2 about the pressure of the battlefield on political leadership in Kyiv and Moscow. He was interviewed about the capabilities of Russia’s nuclear weapons by the Swedish newspaper, Dagens ETC.
PRIO started listing media appearances on profiles in 2023. Earlier media appearances may not be listed.