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Displaying 236 comments in series Ukraine War
July 2026
Ukraine ramps up drone strikes in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea
Since early July, Ukraine has expanded its middle- and long-range aerial and naval drone strikes from isolating the Crimean Peninsula to also disrupting Russia’s maritime traffic in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.
Putin intensifies missile attacks against Kyiv ahead of NATO summit
The Kremlin paired the July attacks with exaggerated battlefield claims and messaging aimed at the July NATO summit.
Ukraine’s expanding strike campaign undercuts Putin’s claims of steady progress
Russian President Vladimir Putin has a reputation for lashing out when cornered. According to some analysts, Putin’s pattern of responding to setbacks with escalation has made many Western leaders hesitant to supply heavy-impact weapon systems to Ukraine.
June 2026
Shadow of Anchorage no-deal looms over Ukraine peace no-talks
The long-deadlocked Ukraine war has from the start of 2026 changed quite drastically in the tactical, strategic and geopolitical dimensions, but has remained immobile on the diplomatic track.
SPIEF’26 highlighted Russia’s growing economic troubles
Russia’s business elites went through the motions of demonstrating loyalty to Putin by attending SPIEF’26 amid mounting economic and security challenges.
Russia hits strategic ceiling with attacks, strikes, and bluffs
Each attempt at nuclear blackmail exposes the disarray in Russian elites and society.
May 2026
Surge in nuclear brinksmanship cannot regain Russia’s position of strength
The accumulation of setbacks in Russian economic, military, and foreign policies this spring has reached such a scale that the pattern of deadlocked war is beginning to shift toward the prospect of defeat
Putin missed another potential chance to work toward peace
Russians are tired of the Kremlin’s deadlocked war against Ukraine. Neither the keenest Russia observers nor analysts inside the Kremlin, however, have an accurate measure of this tiredness.
March 2026
Moscow calculates benefits of Gulf conflict, coming short
As the aerial conflict in the Persian Gulf moves into week three, assessments generally assume Russia is a key beneficiary.
The wars of misconstrued opportunities and bad choices
Trump’s assertion of an “imminent threat” from Iran is no more convincing than President Vladimir Putin’s perennial claim that he had no other choice but to invade Ukraine.
February 2026
Kremlin struggles to project global relevance amid peace talks
Vladimir Putin may persist with his “military victory” war plan, but he also wants to keep the diplomatic attention of U.S. President Donald Trump, who wants to bring the war against Ukraine to an end.
Russia’s hope for trans-atlantic rift at MSC disappointed
Russia hopes to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe through hybrid attacks and nuclear brinkmanship to increase its chances of prevailing against Ukraine.
‘Energy truce’ could be preamble to Ukraine peace deal
In the January 30 “energy truce” Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt strikes on energy infrastructure until at least February 1.
January 2026
Putin’s irrelevance at Davos Forum is irreversible
The agenda of the World Economic Forum (WEF), in Davos, Switzerland on January 19–23, is extensive. The absence of official Russian participants appears politically motivated.
Putin stalling ninety percent complete peace deal
The recent surge in diplomatic activity intended to draft an agreement to end Moscow’s war against Ukraine has yielded U.S. and Ukrainian assertions that the deal is 90 percent ready.
December 2025
Quality of mediation is a major issue in the Ukraine peace process
The ongoing talks between the US, Russian and Ukrainian teams of negotiators may yet produce a “peace deal” – so desired by President Donald Trump – by the end of the tumultuous year 2025, or at least before the disastrous war comes to the four-year mark.
Flaws in Putin’s art of no-deal for peace become apparent
In November, a 28-point U.S.–Russia draft peace proposal was leaked that heavily favored Moscow, sparking backlash from Ukraine and the European Union.
October 2025
Putin returns to brinksmanship after new U.S. sanctions
With hopes for a personal rapport with Trump fading, Putin has returned to nuclear brinkmanship.
Putin–Trump call stalls Tomahawks but reactivates ceasefire discussions
Putin’s phone call yielded a short-term advantage by prompting Trump to delay a decision on supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
Russia ignores global peace developments to focus on Putin’s war
Extraordinary international attention was focused on the Nobel Peace Prize announcement on October 10. Anxiety was palpable in Moscow, where official skepticism had dominated since the award of the 2022 prize to the Memorial Society.
September 2025
Putin raises the stakes of rejecting peace deal
Three years and seven months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, all international initiatives to bring the war to an end have seemingly discontinued.
Moscow downplays drone incursion on Poland
The incursion of at least 19 Russian drones into Polish airspace on September 9–10 produced plenty of shock but hardly any awe.
Putin seeks People’s Republic of China’s support for war-to-victory stance
The PRC is marking the 80th anniversary not only of the defeat of Japanese aggression during World War II, but also the end of the long century of perceived humiliation by various imperialist powers — one of which was, in fact, Russia.
July 2025
Putin tries to build himself a position of strength
Expectations for the third round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul on July 23 had been very low, and the forty-minute-long talks delivered exactly that.
Multipolarity matures, but not according to Putin’s plan
The intensity of turbulence on the global arena has reached such high levels that the 2025 BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro on 6–7 July attracted far less attention than expected.
Putin’s game of war-making and bargaining comes to end
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fake readiness to negotiate the end of Moscow’s war against Ukraine amid its relentless attacks on Ukraine appears to be coming to a breaking point.
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